How We Score Deals

Every Northeast commercial real estate deal is scored 1–10 on five weighted dimensions. This is how.

The Five Dimensions

Every deal is evaluated against five criteria. Together, they answer: "Is this a good deal for an investor in this market?"

30% Weight
Cap Rate vs. Submarket
How does this deal's cap rate compare to similar properties in the same submarket? A deal trading at a 60+ basis point premium suggests pricing upside.
Windsor industrial at 7.9% cap
Hartford submarket avg: 7.3%
→ +60bps premium = strong signal
25% Weight
Price/SF vs. Comps
Are we paying $68/SF for industrial when recent sales support $74–81/SF? Below-market pricing is a green flag if deal quality is equal.
Listed at: $72/SF
Recent comps: $76–$84/SF
→ $4–12/SF discount = value
20% Weight
Location Fundamentals
Highway access, employment base, population density, transit, infrastructure proximity. Is this a market with tailwinds or headwinds?
I-91 corridor access
Strong distribution demand
Stable submarket employment
→ Fundamentals solid
15% Weight
Value-Add Potential
Vacancy. Below-market rents. Deferred maintenance. Repositioning upside. How much value can an owner create post-acquisition?
40-unit multifamily
50% below-market rents
3-year rent growth path
→ $1.2M value creation
10% Weight
1031 Exchange Suitability
Is this deal structured for a 1031 buyer? NNN leases, clean title, price band $500K–$10M, and ability to close in 180 days all matter.
NNN retail lease
Investment-grade tenant
12-year WALT
→ Excellent 1031 candidate

What the Scores Mean

9–10
Exceptional. Rare deal. Multiple strong signals: cap rate well above submarket, price/SF below recent comps, strong fundamentals, and significant value-add or 1031 upside. Flag immediately.
7–8
Strong. Good investment thesis. At least two of three: cap rate competitive, price reasonable, location solid. Include in daily alert with positive commentary.
5–6
Watchlist. Interesting but not urgent. Typically mixed signals: one strong dimension offset by a weakness. Include if deal volume is low; note what would improve the score.
Below 5
Pass. Do not include unless the deal signals a market trend worth noting (e.g., "pricing compression in Hartford"). One-off weakness.

Case Study: Windsor Industrial Closed Deal

Listed Friday at 7.8% Cap. Closed 19 Days Later.

Listed Price
$3.6M
Listed Price/SF
$74/SF
NDI Score
8.1/10
Closed Price
$3.55M
Closed Price/SF
$72/SF
Days on Market
19
Why it scored 8.1: Cap rate of 7.8% sits 50bps above Hartford industrial average (7.3%). Price at $74/SF tracked below a comp set of $76–$84/SF on similar Windsor properties. Three-tenant structure with 4.2-year weighted average lease term. Assumable debt at 4.8% in a 5.5% rate environment. I-91 corridor access. All five scoring dimensions registered positive signals.

Why it closed fast: The buyer saw what our algorithm saw — a deal trading inside comps with yield above market. The 1031 suitability (NNN-like structure, multi-tenant) made it a plug-and-play replacement property. By day 4 of listing, competing offers were on the table.

Outcome: Seller accepted $50K below asking on day 19. Buyer closed at stated timeline. Deal was in NDI's Friday alert as a 7.5+ score. Thirty-seven subscribers saw it before MLS distribution went wide.

Who Scores Your Deals

📊
Dave Manski
Founder & Chief Underwriter
20+ years in Northeast commercial real estate. Started as a broker in Hartford; moved into institutional acquisitions (small funds, $50M–$300M AUM). Underwritten $2B+ in deals across CT, NJ, NY, MA, and PA. Expertise: 1031 exchanges, industrial logistics, NNN retail, and secondary market opportunity zone strategies. Built Northeast Deal Intel to solve his own problem: no single source for ranked deal flow across nine states. Now runs the scoring engine daily for 2,000+ subscribers.

Methodology Transparency

How We Build Benchmarks

Every cap rate, price/SF, and submarket average comes from closed transaction data. We aggregate 108,000+ closed comps from the past 3 years across all nine Northeast states. Benchmarks are recalculated monthly and segmented by submarket and property type. A deal's score always compares it to its specific submarket average — not statewide, not national.

Where Do Listings Come From?

We track 20,000+ active listings across LoopNet, Crexi, CoStar, and broker feeds. Our Scout agents refresh every 6 hours. New listings enter the scoring engine within 2–4 hours of being added to our data sources. Scoring is automatic but never overrides human review — our team flags false positives and validates comp sets daily.

What We Don't Do

We don't rank deals by subjective appeal. We don't give bonus points for "trophy locations" or penalize based on aesthetic preference. We don't predict the market. A deal scoring 6.5 today might score 8.0 in six months if submarket fundamentals shift; our algorithm updates monthly. We don't sell investment advice. Scores reflect deal structure and market comparables — not buy/sell/hold recommendations. That's your decision.

How Often Do Benchmarks Update?

Cap rate and price/SF benchmarks refresh monthly. Submarket classifications and location fundamentals update quarterly. All historical scores remain in the database for pattern analysis and performance tracking.

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